End Date: Tuesday Apr-11-2017 11:35:14 PDT
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In the Wednesday Report the title read, What Type of Investor are You? My main focus was to show some intermediate to long term buy and sell signals based on the 21 month simple moving average and the MACD-Histogram. Tonight I would to take it one step further and look at the Chartology for some of the big stock market indexes which shows the intermediate to longer term perspective. There is one dominate chart pattern that has built out a consolidation pattern for the 2015 to 2016 correction.
Lets start by looking at a 4 year weekly chart for the $ SPX which shows the dominate H&S consolidation pattern that was needed to consolidate the last rally phase. It could have been any number of different consolidation patterns, but this time it was the H&S consolidation pattern. Back in December of last year the SPX broke out above its neckline and has rallied strongly without much of a correction. Four weeks ago the SPX hit a high of 2401 and has been going nowhere which is suggesting the first real correction may be at hand since the rally out of the November elections low.
Core buyers of the United States Mint’s proof silver American Eagles seem to be deserting the program.
This is one conclusion that can be drawn from first day sales number for the 2017 coin.
Buyers took up 226,173 silver proofs in the first 24 hours.
This compares to last year’s first day total of 262,816.
Last year’s coin was a special 30th anniversary issue with edge lettering rather than reeding.
Its sales should be higher.
Some collectors like to jump in to buy special American Eagle issues.
However, the fact that only 36,643 fewer proofs were sold last week on the first day shows that last year’s special silver Eagle issue was not viewed as particularly special.
It certainly was not enough to reverse what is becoming a worrisome downtrend in proof silver American Eagle demand.
The 30th anniversary proof of 2016 currently has sales of 550,054. (It is still being sold.) We have to add another 41,611 proofs that are part of the Ronald Reagan Coins & Chronicles Sets to get an overall sales figure of 591,665 2016 silver proofs.
This is more than 100,000 fewer than the 699,623 silver proof Eagles sold in 2015.
As recently as 2006 over 1 million were sold.
As recently as 2013, the total was 918,680.
Even though sales of the 2016 are not yet finished, a decline of roughly 36 percent from 2013 sales levels is not encouraging.
Now the 2017 coin proof coin is setting an even slower sales pace.
Are the flash and allure of the Mint’s offerings of special gold coins to blame?
Last year collectors had the opportunity to buy gold versions of the Mercury dime, Standing Liberty quarter and Walking Liberty half dollar.
If we assume collectors do not have infinite sums of money to spend, they have to make choices when special gold coins are created.
Are some collectors opting to go for the gold with money they might otherwise have spent on proof silver Eagles?
If collectors are saving up their funds for use on April 6 when the American Liberty 225th anniversary one-ounce gold coin becomes available, that could explain the weak silver proof Eagle number.
Buzz blogger Dave Harper has twice won the Numismatic Literary Guild Award for Best Blog and is editor of the weekly newspaper “Numismatic News.”
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Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: Uptrend continues.
SPX Intermediate trend: The correction from 2400 continues,
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.